Last month Theodore Cross, editor of The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education, penned an interesting article defending his view on Obama being the superior choice (between Clinton and Obama) for African-American voters.
Cross cites examples of racial pandering which, in his view, typify the Clinton campaign. Further, he analyzes Hillary Clinton's disconnect between word and deed on minority issues and why that gap is necessary as she moonwalks to the political center.
Further, the article demonstrates how the AA vote can be the swing constituency given the pluralities expected in the upcoming primaries.
More after the fold.
Entitled "Barack Obama is the Superior Choice for African-Americans", Theodore Cross starts by exposing Hillary's formula for winning the black vote, in no particular order of importance:
- Place blacks in visible, high-level campaign positions
- Leverage Bill's popularity within the AA community
- Secure endorsements from politically- and socially-influential black leaders
- Patronize high-visibility black events
- Craft and deliver red-meat stump speech lines tailored to minority audiences
- Speak in generalities on minority issues, staying vague on specifics
The problem, according to Cross, is the absence of a minority agenda in her public platform, to wit:
It is true that Senator Clinton’s campaign speeches include expressions of support for the plight of poor blacks. But it is her formal political platform that tells the story. The words "black" or "minority" never enter the text of her official program for America. Given Hillary Clinton’s well-known progressive views on social and racial issues, one would have expected to find key words in her platform such as "inner-city schools," "reduction of poverty," "revitalizing America’s cities," "increased access to job training," and "support of Head Start programs for youngsters from low-income families." One would have expected too that Senator Clinton’s platform would address such issues as community development programs for inner cities, increased support for minority college students, support for black farmers, programs to create capital and encourage entrepreneurship in black communities, and tougher penalties for hate crimes. Yet all of the standard campaign promises that a liberal Democrat typically offers to blacks are completely absent from her announced program.
Cross theorizes that disavowing these issues from her formal platform is a direct nod to her most important voting constituencies in the move to center ground. These would include white ethnics, farmers, union leaders, small business owners, blue-collar workers, conservative Democrats, white parents of public school children, Reagan Democrats, and Jewish interests. According to the article, none of these groups are particularly endeared to minority causes and view black problems as largely self-inflicted.
By contrast, Cross compares Clinton's offerings to Obama's specific and detailed policy positions on fighting poverty (including a specific plan entitled "Changing the Odds for Urban America"), improving schools, voting rights and election reform.
The author proceeds to suggest that blacks will eventually wake up to the realistic possibility of electing the first AA president. A decent Obama showing in Iowa, where even a strong third place in a state that is 94% white, coupled with good performance in New Hampshire (where Obama stands better because of the ability of Independents to vote in the primary) should flip the switch on his electability to black voters nationwide.
Blacks make up about 25% of the national Democratic electorate. However, in the key southern states like South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, blacks make up over 50% of Democratic voters, because whites in these states overwhelmingly vote Republican. Thus, if Obama could take just the majority of the black vote (leaving other candidates splitting the remainder), one could easily visualize a number of plurality victories for the presumptuous Senator from Illinois across the South. This strategy would also work for other Super Tuesday states with significant black voting blocs, including Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New York, New Jersey, and Oklahoma.
To his credit, Obama has disavowed this kind of race-based voting divide, encouraging those that cast their ballots for him to do so based on their judgement of him as the best candidate. Undoubtedly, however, many blacks will be intrigued at the possibility of playing a role in the election of the first AA president, just as many women may be swayed to Clinton by the possibility of making history.
That said, if Obama is able to ultimately convince the black electorate of his electability by white America, blacks may well have it within their power to be the deciding force in determining the Democratic nominee.
My, how far we have come.