I was about to reply to theal2's diary entitled "The Dems Winning '08 Ticket", where the diarist waxes on the unbeatability of a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket.
I had previously thought these two in any combination unworkable for a variety of reasons, but in experiencing my change of heart, thought the rationale might be worthy of it's own diary, given other Kossacks may have harbored (be harboring?) the same reservations.
My original rationale for rejecting the ticket combination was:
- An Obama/Clinton ticket seemed unlikely, owing to
- Clinton is a polarizing icon of the 20th century, inconsistent with Obama's mantra of "turn the page"
- Clinton would never accept a #2 spot on the ticket, after operating since 2004 as the presumptive 2008 favorite
- Clinton would mobilize the Republicans against the Dem ticket in a way no other personality could
- A Clinton/Obama ticket seemed unlikely since
- To win, I presumed Clinton would have had to go negative and burn bridges to Obama
- The #2 person on the ticket should not outshine the #1 (see "Kerry-Edwards 2004")
- Obama would not "help" the ticket geographically or experientially
That was my thinking until about two weeks ago. Having seen the pair tangle during these early primaries, I've had a change of heart on a couple of fronts.
- I've gained a new respect for Clinton. She may truly be the smartest candidate in the race and (even as an Obama supporter) I thought clearly won last Saturday's debate. The Saturday debate I found more significant than any of the others heretofore, as for once the candidates got to give answers that were more than soundbites and truly engaged with each other. She held her ground very well, IMHO.
- I think there's a possibility Clinton would accept a #2 spot on the ticket, since she seems to be now appreciating the historic significance of her undertaking. A virtually-guaranteed Vice-Presidency is no less historically significant, and the combination of the two doesn't just crack the glass ceiling -- it obliterates it.
- Obama's message of defining a new coalition in American politics and doing away with the current slash-and-burn culture is, in fact, a strategic perfect fit for a Clinton VP, as she is a lightning-rod like no other for those kinds of attacks from the other side.
- The early primaries have demonstrated that race and sex are not a determinant for Democratic voters
- I believe the Democratic anti-Hillary voting bloc would tolerate her presence as the #2. The vast majority of Kossacks have indicated they would support the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, including HRC at the top of the ticket. We generally seem to be in agreement here that even our worse candidates (not to suggest Hillary is) are better than the GOP's best candidates.
With respect to a Clinton/Obama ticket, I see that now as a working possibility owing to:
- While we have started to see the inklings of some negative give-and-take from both campaigns, there seems to be a genuine desire on the part of both candidates to not drag the race into the gutter. While they argue on issues, there is still an underlying graciousness and civility in their exchanges which gives me hope we may see no irreparable rifts between the two.
- While not nearly embodying the incadesecence of Obama, Clinton has been forced to raise her speaking "game". I've noticed a marked improvement in both her delivery and message as the campaign has gone on. Not too many months ago, when Bill took the podium, it was a given he would eclipse her and capture the audience in a way she was incapable of. While there is still a gap between them, I see it closing. As we Democrats would have liked, competition is making all of our candidates better.
- Although Obama doesn't help the ticket geographically or experientially, he is clearly the brightest star within the party. He attracts money and followers the way no other candidate has shown an ability to, and brings a required injection of authenticity and honesty to the ticket.
- Such a ticket clears the deck for Obama to run again 2016 (with the full establishment blessing), when he would be 55, still quite a young man.
I believe either candidate in either position would destroy their GOP counterpart in one-on-one debates. This pairing COULD work.
Comments?